New evidence · September 2026 Three economic futures. One practical stress test. Anthropic's new model asks how AI capability, adoption, automation, productivity, and new-task creation could reshape the US economy by 2030. These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts. We crosswalk its published SOC grouping to all 620 roles so you can see which broad results apply to your occupation.
Published model outputs
What changes by 2030 Every value below comes from the paper's baseline calibration and is measured against its no-AI path unless stated otherwise.
Modest change +1.6% GDP AI has an internet-scale macroeconomic effect that arrives gradually.
Tasks affected and used 4%
2030 GDP growth 2.4%
Cognitive employment -0.5%
Overall unemployment 3.9%
Labor share of income 59.4% Substantial change +8.3% GDP AI affects roughly one fifth of cognitive task instances and the economy grows at about twice its normal rate.
Tasks affected and used 12%
2030 GDP growth 5.4%
Cognitive employment -3.9%
Overall unemployment 4.6%
Labor share of income 56.1% Extreme change +32.4% GDP AI reaches nearly half of cognitive work, diffuses quickly, and creates no replacement cognitive tasks in the model.
Tasks affected and used 30%
2030 GDP growth 15.4%
Cognitive employment -21.5%
Overall unemployment 11.9%
Labor share of income 45.2% Occupation crosswalk
Stress-test your role The paper models cognitive occupations (SOC major groups 11-29, 41, and 43) directly and combines every other occupation into one comparison group. This tool reproduces that boundary exactly.
Choose an occupation Accountants and Auditors Actors Actuaries Acupuncturists Administrative Law Judges, Adjudicators, and Hearing Officers Administrative Services Managers Adult Basic Education and ESL Instructors Advertising and Promotions Managers Advertising Sales Agents Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technologists and Technicians Aerospace Engineers Agents and Business Managers of Artists, Performers, and Athletes Agricultural Engineers Agricultural Equipment Operators Agricultural Inspectors Air Traffic Controllers Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians Aircraft Structure and Systems Assemblers Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers Ambulance Drivers and Attendants Anesthesiologists Animal Breeders Animal Caretakers Animal Control Workers Animal Scientists Animal Trainers Anthropologists and Archeologists Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate Arbitrators, Mediators, and Conciliators Architects, Except Landscape and Naval Architectural and Engineering Managers Archivists Art Directors Art, Drama, and Music Teachers, Postsecondary Astronomers Athletes and Sports Competitors Athletic Trainers Audio and Video Technicians Audiologists Audiovisual Equipment Installers and Repairers Automotive and Watercraft Service Attendants Automotive Body and Related Repairers Automotive Glass Installers Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics Avionics Technicians Baggage Porters and Bellhops Bailiffs Bakers Barbers Bartenders Bicycle Repairers Bill and Account Collectors Billing and Posting Clerks Biochemists and Biophysicists Bioengineers and Biomedical Engineers Biological Science Teachers, Postsecondary Biological Technicians Boilermakers Book Authors Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks Brickmasons and Blockmasons Broadcast Announcers and Radio Disc Jockeys Broadcast Technicians Brokerage Clerks Budget Analysts Bus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists Bus Drivers, School Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity Business Analysts Business Teachers, Postsecondary Butchers and Meat Cutters Buyers and Purchasing Agents Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters Calibration Technologists and Technicians Call Center Agents Camera Operators, Television, Video, and Film Cardiologists Cardiovascular Technologists Career and Technical Education Teachers, Postsecondary Career and Technical Education Teachers, Secondary Cargo and Freight Agents Carpenters Carpet Installers Cartographers and Photogrammetrists Cashiers Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers Chefs and Head Cooks Chemical Engineers Chemical Plant and System Operators Chemical Technicians Chemistry Teachers, Postsecondary Chemists Chief Executives Child, Family, and School Social Workers Childcare Workers Chiropractors Choreographers Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians Civil Engineers Claims Adjusters, Examiners, and Investigators Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment Clergy Clinical and Counseling Psychologists Clinical Research Coordinators Coaches and Scouts Coin, Vending, and Amusement Machine Servicers Commercial and Industrial Designers Commercial Divers Commercial Pilots Communications Teachers, Postsecondary Community Health Workers Compensation and Benefits Managers Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists Compliance Managers Compliance Officers Computer and Information Research Scientists Computer Hardware Engineers Computer Network Architects Computer Network Support Specialists Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers Computer Programmers Computer Science Teachers, Postsecondary Computer Systems Analysts Computer User Support Specialists Computer, Automated Teller, and Office Machine Repairers Concierges Conservation Scientists Construction and Building Inspectors Construction Laborers Construction Managers Continuous Mining Machine Operators Cooks, Fast Food Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria Cooks, Private Household Cooks, Restaurant Cooks, Short Order Copywriters Correctional Officers and Jailers Correspondence Clerks Cost Estimators Costume Attendants Counter and Rental Clerks Couriers and Messengers Court Reporters and Simultaneous Captioners Court, Municipal, and License Clerks Craft Artists Crane and Tower Operators Credit Analysts Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks Credit Counselors Crematory Operators Criminal Justice and Law Enforcement Teachers, Postsecondary Curators Customer Service Representatives Cybersecurity Specialists Dancers Data Analysts Data Entry Keyers Data Scientists Database Administrators Database Architects Dental Assistants Dental Hygienists Dental Laboratory Technicians Dentists, General Dermatologists Desktop Publishers Detectives and Criminal Investigators Diagnostic Medical Sonographers Dietitians and Nutritionists Disc Jockeys, Except Radio Dishwashers Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance Door-to-Door Sales Workers and Street Vendors Drafters Driver/Sales Workers Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers Economics Teachers, Postsecondary Economists Editors Education Administrators, Kindergarten through Secondary Education Administrators, Postsecondary Education and Childcare Administrators, Preschool and Daycare Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors Electrical and Electronic Engineering Technologists and Technicians Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers Electrical and Electronics Drafters Electrical Engineers Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers Electricians Electronics Engineers, Except Computer Elementary School Teachers Elevator and Escalator Installers and Repairers Eligibility Interviewers, Government Programs Embalmers Emergency Management Directors Emergency Medical Technicians Emergency Medicine Physicians Engineering Teachers, Postsecondary Entertainment and Recreation Managers Environmental Engineering Technologists and Technicians Environmental Engineers Environmental Science Technicians Environmental Scientists and Specialists Epidemiologists Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants Exercise Physiologists Explosives Workers and Blasters Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers Facilities Managers Fallers Family Medicine Physicians Farm Equipment Mechanics Farmers and Ranchers Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse Fashion Designers Fast Food and Counter Workers Fence Erectors File Clerks Film and Video Editors Financial Analysts Financial Examiners Financial Managers Financial Risk Specialists Fine Artists and Illustrators Fire Inspectors and Investigators Fire Supervisors Fire-Prevention and Protection Engineers Firefighters First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping Workers First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping Workers First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics and Repairers First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers First-Line Supervisors of Production Workers First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers Fish and Game Wardens Fishing and Hunting Workers Fitness Trainers Flight Attendants Floor Layers, Except Carpet, Wood, and Hard Tiles Floral Designers Food Preparation Workers Food Scientists and Technologists Food Servers, Nonrestaurant Food Service Managers Food Service Supervisors Foreign Language and Literature Teachers, Postsecondary Forensic Science Technicians Forest and Conservation Technicians Foresters Fraud Examiners, Investigators and Analysts Fundraisers Fundraising Managers Funeral Attendants Funeral Home Managers Gambling and Sports Book Writers and Runners Gambling Cage Workers Gambling Dealers Gambling Managers Gambling Surveillance Officers General and Operations Managers General Internal Medicine Physicians Genetic Counselors Geographers Geoscientists Glaziers Graphic Designers Hairdressers and Cosmetologists Hazardous Materials Removal Workers Health Education Specialists Health Information Technologists and Medical Registrars Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary Healthcare Social Workers Hearing Aid Specialists Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers High School Teachers Highway Maintenance Workers Historians History Teachers, Postsecondary Home Appliance Repairers Home Health and Personal Care Aides Hosts and Hostesses, Restaurant, Lounge, and Coffee Shop Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks Human Resources Assistants, Except Payroll and Timekeeping Human Resources Managers Human Resources Specialists Hydrologists Industrial Electronics Repairers Industrial Engineers Industrial Machinery Mechanics Industrial Production Managers Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators Industrial-Organizational Psychologists Information Security Analysts Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers Instructional Coordinators Insulation Workers Insurance Appraisers, Auto Damage Insurance Claims Processing Clerks Insurance Sales Agents Insurance Underwriters Interior Designers Interpreters Interpreters and Translators Interviewers, Except Eligibility and Loan IT Managers Janitors and Cleaners Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates Judicial Law Clerks Kindergarten Teachers Labor Relations Specialists Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand Landscape Architects Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers Law Teachers, Postsecondary Lawyers Legal Secretaries and Administrative Assistants Legislators Librarians and Media Collections Specialists Library Assistants, Clerical Library Technicians Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Recreational Protective Service Workers Light Truck Drivers Lighting Technicians Loan Interviewers and Clerks Loan Officers Locksmiths and Safe Repairers Locomotive Engineers Lodging Managers Logging Equipment Operators Logisticians Machine Learning Engineers Machinists Magnetic Resonance Imaging Technologists Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Maintenance Workers, Machinery Makeup Artists, Theatrical and Performance Management Analysts Manicurists and Pedicurists Marine Engineers and Naval Architects Market Research Analysts Marketing Managers Marriage and Family Therapists Massage Therapists Material Moving Supervisors Materials Engineers Materials Scientists Mathematical Science Teachers, Postsecondary Mathematicians Mechanical Door Repairers Mechanical Drafters Mechanical Engineering Technologists and Technicians Mechanical Engineers Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technicians Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists Medical and Health Services Managers Medical Assistants Medical Dosimetrists Medical Equipment Preparers Medical Equipment Repairers Medical Records Specialists Medical Scientists Medical Secretaries Medical Transcriptionists Meeting and Event Planners Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers Mental Health Counselors Merchandise Displayers and Window Trimmers Meteorologists Meter Readers, Utilities Microbiologists Middle School Teachers Millwrights Mining and Geological Engineers Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines Models Morticians, Undertakers, and Funeral Arrangers Motion Picture Projectionists Motorboat Mechanics Motorcycle Mechanics Museum Technicians and Conservators Music Directors and Composers Musical Instrument Repairers and Tuners Musicians and Singers Network and Computer Systems Administrators Neurologists New Accounts Clerks News Analysts, Reporters, and Journalists Nuclear Engineers Nuclear Medicine Technologists Nuclear Power Reactor Operators Nuclear Technicians Nurse Anesthetists Nurse Midwives Nurse Practitioners Nursing Assistants Nursing Instructors and Teachers, Postsecondary Obstetricians and Gynecologists Occupational Health and Safety Specialists Occupational Health and Safety Technicians Occupational Therapists Occupational Therapy Assistants Office Clerks, General Office Machine Operators Operating Engineers and Heavy Equipment Operators Operations Research Analysts Ophthalmic Medical Technicians Ophthalmologists Opticians Optometrists Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons Order Clerks Orthodontists Orthopedic Surgeons Orthotists and Prosthetists Packers and Packagers, Hand Painters, Construction and Maintenance Paperhangers Paralegals and Legal Assistants Paramedics Parking Attendants Parking Enforcement Workers Parts Salespersons Pathologists Paving and Surfacing Equipment Operators Payroll and Timekeeping Clerks Pediatric Surgeons Pediatricians, General Penetration Testers Personal Care Aides Personal Financial Advisors Pest Control Workers Pesticide Handlers and Applicators Petroleum Engineers Petroleum Pump System Operators and Refinery Operators Pharmacists Pharmacy Technicians Phlebotomists Photographers Physical Therapist Assistants Physical Therapists Physician Assistants Physicists Physics Teachers, Postsecondary Pipelayers Plasterers and Stucco Masons Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Podiatrists Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers Police Supervisors Political Scientists Postal Service Clerks Postal Service Mail Carriers Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, and Processing Machine Operators Postmasters and Mail Superintendents Power Distributors and Dispatchers Power Plant Operators Prepress Technicians Preschool Teachers Print Binding and Finishing Workers Printing Press Operators Private Detectives and Investigators Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists Procurement Clerks Producers and Directors Product Managers Production, Planning, and Expediting Clerks Project Management Specialists Proofreaders and Copy Markers Property, Real Estate, and Community Association Managers Psychiatric Technicians Psychiatrists Psychology Teachers, Postsecondary Public Relations Managers Public Relations Specialists Public Safety Telecommunicators Purchasing Managers Radiation Therapists Radio, Cellular, and Tower Equipment Installers Radiologic Technologists and Technicians Radiologists Rail-Track Laying and Maintenance Equipment Operators Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters Real Estate Brokers Real Estate Sales Agents Receptionists Receptionists and Information Clerks Recreation Workers Recreational Vehicle Service Technicians Recruiters Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors Registered Nurses Rehabilitation Counselors Reinforcing Iron and Rebar Workers Reservation and Transportation Ticket Agents Residential Advisors Respiratory Therapists Retail Loss Prevention Specialists Retail Salespersons Riggers Robotics Engineers Robotics Technicians Roofers Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas Roustabouts, Oil and Gas Sailors and Marine Oilers Sales Engineers Sales Managers Sales Representatives of Services Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing School Psychologists Secretaries and Administrative Assistants Securities and Financial Services Sales Agents Security and Fire Alarm Systems Installers Security Guards Self-Enrichment Teachers Semiconductor Processing Technicians Septic Tank Servicers and Sewer Pipe Cleaners Set and Exhibit Designers Sewing Machine Operators Sheet Metal Workers Ship Captains and Mates Ship Engineers Shipping and Receiving Clerks Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs Skincare Specialists Slaughterers and Meat Packers Small Engine Mechanics Social and Community Service Managers Social and Human Service Assistants Social Media Managers Social Science Research Assistants Sociologists Software Developers Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers Soil and Plant Scientists Solar Panel Installers Sound Engineering Technicians Special Education Teachers Special Effects Artists and Animators Speech-Language Pathologists Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators Statistical Assistants Statisticians Stockers and Order Fillers Stonemasons Structural Iron and Steel Workers Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors Substitute Teachers, Short-Term Subway and Streetcar Operators Supply Chain Analysts Surgical Assistants Surgical Technologists Survey Researchers Surveying and Mapping Technicians Surveyors Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service Tailors, Dressmakers, and Custom Sewers Tax Examiners and Collectors, and Revenue Agents Tax Preparers Taxi Drivers Teachers, Postsecondary Teaching Assistants Teaching Assistants, Postsecondary Teaching Assistants, Special Education Team Assemblers Technical and Scientific Sales Representatives Technical Writers Telecommunications Equipment Installers Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers Telemarketers Telephone Operators Tellers Tile and Stone Setters Tire Repairers and Changers Title Examiners, Abstractors, and Searchers Tool and Die Makers Tour Guides and Escorts Training and Development Managers Training and Development Specialists Transit and Railroad Police Translators Transportation Inspectors Transportation Security Screeners Transportation, Storage, and Distribution Managers Travel Agents Tree Trimmers and Pruners Tutors Umpires, Referees, and Sports Officials Upholsterers Urban and Regional Planners UX Designers UX Researchers Veterinarians Veterinary Assistants and Laboratory Animal Caretakers Veterinary Technologists and Technicians Waiters and Waitresses Warehouse Workers Watch and Clock Repairers Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators Web Developers Weighers, Measurers, Checkers, and Samplers Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products Wind Turbine Service Technicians Word Processors and Typists Writers and Authors Zoologists and Wildlife Biologists Cognitive occupation group Customer Service Representatives Existing displacement.ai pressure: 73/100 · High . This score is unchanged by the new source.
Scenario Group wage vs. no-AI path Group employment vs. mid-2026 Group unemployment Overall unemployment
Modest change +0.4% -0.5% 2.9% 3.9%
Substantial change -0.3% -3.9% 4.5% 4.6%
Extreme change -11.5% -21.5% 17.9% 11.9%
These figures apply to the paper's broad worker group, not to the selected occupation. They do not estimate your chance of unemployment, your future wage, or local hiring conditions.
Our extrapolation
What the crosswalk adds We applied Anthropic's published SOC boundary to the current displacement.ai catalog, without changing any role score.
Directly modeled cohort 398 roles fall in the paper's cognitive group; 222 fall in its all-other group.
Existing pressure gap The cognitive cohort averages 39/100 in the current seed model, compared with 25/100 for all other roles.
Elevated planning pressure 85 cognitive roles score high or very high, compared with 7 roles outside that cohort.
The decision implication The new evidence strengthens the case for scenario-based planning around knowledge work. The practical trigger is not a single 2030 forecast: it is whether capability, adoption, autonomous use, and worker re-employment time begin moving together toward the substantial path. Workers in high-pressure cognitive roles should build proof of adjacent skills early; employers should track task redesign and internal mobility; policymakers should watch occupation switching and the labor share alongside headline GDP.
Read before using
What this model cannot tell you The scenarios have no assigned probabilities and diverge mainly after 2027. The model has two worker groups; it does not follow individual workers or estimate occupation-specific layoffs. It omits policy responses, business cycles, aggregate-demand and financial-market disruption, detailed worker differences, and rapid progress in physical robotics. Its survey included 10,980 US adults; the modeled outcome distribution uses the 3,259 respondents who answered all five model inputs. Capital supply and wage rigidity materially change who receives the gains and whether disruption appears through lower wages or higher unemployment. Source: Anthropic Econ Scenario Explorer v1.0 and The Anthropic Institute Working Paper No. 2026-02 .