Share and intensity of work current AI systems can materially affect.
SOC 11-3012
Administrative Services Managers AI displacement risk
Records systems, supply management, and administrative workflows are being automated under this role's supervision. Budget control, vendor management, staffing decisions, and accountability for office operations keep the manager human-led.
Likely potential for exposed tasks to move to software after workflow integration.
The occupation manages the clerical layer AI is compressing, which shifts the job toward systems oversight, policy, and exception management. Managers who drive that automation become more valuable; those defending manual processes shrink with them.
Distribution
Where Administrative Services Managers sits across 620 tracked roles
Displacement pressure 34 — higher than 56% of the 620 occupations tracked on displacement.ai.
Score version
This page uses Seed model v0.4 (seed-v0.4-2026-05), last reviewed 2026-08-15. Directional occupation-level planning model using hand-reviewed public research, task exposure estimates, wage context, and transition-pathway assumptions.
18 O*NET task statements matched to SOC 11-3012. The displayed task profile combines these official task statements with the current public score model.
Median wage context: $114,130 (May 2025, US national). The latest BLS row matched SOC 11-3012.
Scores are planning signals, not forecasts. Local hiring demand, employer-specific workflows, licensing, and credentials must be validated before making career decisions.
2030 economic stress test
How Anthropic's scenarios classify Administrative Services Managers
SOC 11-3012 places this role in the paper's cognitive occupation group. These group-level outcomes do not change the 34/100 role score and are not an occupation forecast.
+0.4% group wage
-0.5% cognitive employment since mid-2026; 2.9% cognitive unemployment.
Economy-wide: +1.6% GDP and 3.9% unemployment.
-0.3% group wage
-3.9% cognitive employment since mid-2026; 4.5% cognitive unemployment.
Economy-wide: +8.3% GDP and 4.6% unemployment.
-11.5% group wage
-21.5% cognitive employment since mid-2026; 17.9% cognitive unemployment.
Economy-wide: +32.4% GDP and 11.9% unemployment.
Compare the assumptions and limitations across all three scenarios. Source: The Anthropic Institute Working Paper No. 2026-02.
Official task evidence
O*NET task matches for Administrative Services Managers
The current evidence import matched 18 task statements from Task Statements 31.0 (August 2026). These rows are used as a grounding layer for judging which parts of the occupation are repeatable, language-heavy, analytical, social, physical, or compliance-sensitive.
Dataset31.0 (August 2026)
Matched tasks18
SOC11-3012
- Core task / ID 21
Prepare and review operational reports and schedules to ensure accuracy and efficiency.
- Core task / ID 20
Set goals and deadlines for the department.
- Core task / ID 23
Acquire, distribute and store supplies.
- Core task / ID 22
Analyze internal processes and recommend and implement procedural or policy changes to improve operations, such as supply changes or the disposal of records.
- Core task / ID 30
Conduct classes to teach procedures to staff.
- Supplemental task / ID 24
Plan, administer, and control budgets for contracts, equipment, and supplies.
Source: O*NET Resource Center, Task Statements. Raw import target: data/raw/onet/task-statements-31-0.txt.
Task profile
Where AI changes the work
Direct supportive services and staff
Exposure 30, automation 11%, augmentation 52%.
O*NET evidence: Direct or coordinate the supportive services department of a business, agency, or organ... (ID 19)
Prepare and review operational reports
Exposure 66, automation 38%, augmentation 70%.
O*NET evidence: Prepare and review operational reports and schedules to ensure accuracy and efficiency. (ID 21)
Control budgets for services and supplies
Exposure 52, automation 27%, augmentation 66%.
O*NET evidence: Plan, administer, and control budgets for contracts, equipment, and supplies. (ID 24)
Develop operational standards and procedures
Exposure 48, automation 23%, augmentation 66%.
O*NET evidence: Develop operational standards and procedures for the work unit or department. (ID 21263)
TaskExposureAutomationAugmentation
Direct supportive services and staff3011%52%
Prepare and review operational reports6638%70%
Control budgets for services and supplies5227%66%
Develop operational standards and procedures4823%66%
Transition pathways
Adjacent moves that preserve existing skills
role redesign
ModerateDirector of Administrative Operations
Training horizon: 3-6 months. Skill overlap 76. Wage preservation signal 116.
- Own workflow automation programs
- Measure service-level outcomes
- Lead policy modernization
adjacent role
ModerateBusiness Operations Manager
Training horizon: 3-6 months. Skill overlap 68. Wage preservation signal 108.
- Broaden into cross-functional operations
- Build performance dashboards
- Lead efficiency initiatives
Comparison guides
Compare the next move before you commit
3-6 months
Administrative Services Managers to Director of Administrative Operations
Compare AI displacement pressure, wage preservation, skill overlap, training time, and first proof project for moving from Administrative Services Managers into Director of Administrative Operations.
3-6 months
Administrative Services Managers to Business Operations Manager
Compare AI displacement pressure, wage preservation, skill overlap, training time, and first proof project for moving from Administrative Services Managers into Business Operations Manager.
What the AI risk score means for Administrative Services Managers
The displacement pressure score for Administrative Services Managers is 34. That score blends task exposure, automation pressure, augmentation potential, wage vulnerability, transition feasibility, and source confidence. It is designed to help workers and workforce teams decide where to act first, not to claim a specific date when a job will disappear.
For this role, the clearest risk pattern is visible at the task level. Prepare and review operational reports carries 38% automation pressure, while Prepare and review operational reports carries 70% augmentation potential. That means the best response is usually a targeted redesign of work: move away from repeatable production tasks and toward judgment, exception handling, coordination, stakeholder context, and accountable use of AI tools.
Labor-market context and wage risk
Median wage: $114,130 (May 2025, US national). Employment context: Office operations leadership managing workflow automation. Typical education: Bachelor's degree common.
Wage vulnerability is 34, while transition feasibility is 74. A high wage-vulnerability score means workers should pay close attention to salary preservation before making a move. A high transition-feasibility score means there are adjacent paths that can reuse existing skills without requiring a complete career reset.
- Moderate displacement pressure
- Manages the layer being automated
- Systems oversight is the growth path
Upskilling priorities
Skills that make this role more resilient
The safest upskilling plan starts with skills already close to the work. For Administrative Services Managers, the strongest near-term skill priorities are listed below. These are useful whether the goal is to stay in the role, move to a redesigned version of the role, or transition into an adjacent occupation.
Operations management
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Budget control
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Vendor management
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Process improvement
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
90-day transition plan
The most practical next step is not to wait for a layoff or a full role redesign. Use the next 90 days to create evidence that you can operate in a safer, more AI-augmented version of the work.
- In the first 30 days, document the repetitive tasks in your current work and identify where AI can reduce drafting, lookup, classification, or reporting time.
- By 60 days, complete one small project connected to Director of Administrative Operations, such as own workflow automation programs.
- By 90 days, compare internal openings and external postings for Director of Administrative Operations or Business Operations Manager and update your resume around measurable workflow outcomes.
FAQ
Questions about AI and Administrative Services Managers
Will AI replace Administrative Services Managers?
Records systems, supply management, and administrative workflows are being automated under this role's supervision. Budget control, vendor management, staffing decisions, and accountability for office operations keep the manager human-led. The better planning signal is not full replacement, but which tasks become automated, which tasks become AI-assisted, and which responsibilities still need human judgment.
Which parts of Administrative Services Managers work are most exposed to AI?
Prepare and review operational reports and Control budgets for services and supplies show the strongest automation pressure in this model. Prepare and review operational reports and Control budgets for services and supplies are better treated as AI-augmented work.
What should Administrative Services Managers learn next?
Start with Operations management, Budget control, Vendor management. The most practical adjacent paths in this model are Director of Administrative Operations and Business Operations Manager.
How should this score be used?
Use it as a planning signal, not a prediction. Confirm local hiring demand, wages, licensing, credentials, and employer adoption before making a career move.
Sources
Evidence trail
International Labour Organization / 20 May 2025Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational ExposureMcKinsey Global Institute / 26 July 2023Generative AI and the Future of Work in AmericaO*NET Resource Center / Database 31.0 (August 2026)Occupation, Task, Skill, and Work-Activity DataUS Bureau of Labor Statistics / May 2025 estimates (released 15 May 2026)Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics