Share and intensity of work current AI systems can materially affect.
SOC 33-1011
First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers AI displacement risk
Correctional supervisors direct officers, maintain institutional security, and respond to emergencies including escapes. Surveillance analytics and electronic counts streamline monitoring, but custody decisions, use-of-force review, and emergency command inside a facility are supervisory judgment with legal weight.
Likely potential for exposed tasks to move to software after workflow integration.
Distinct from line officers: supervisors absorb the administrative tooling — counts, reports, schedules — while carrying accountability for how the shift runs. Chronic understaffing keeps demand high regardless of technology.
Distribution
Where First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers sits across 620 tracked roles
Displacement pressure 14 — higher than 8% of the 620 occupations tracked on displacement.ai.
Score version
This page uses Seed model v0.4 (seed-v0.4-2026-05), last reviewed 2026-08-15. Directional occupation-level planning model using hand-reviewed public research, task exposure estimates, wage context, and transition-pathway assumptions.
23 O*NET task statements matched to SOC 33-1011. The displayed task profile combines these official task statements with the current public score model.
Median wage context: $77,970 (May 2025, US national). The latest BLS row matched SOC 33-1011.
Scores are planning signals, not forecasts. Local hiring demand, employer-specific workflows, licensing, and credentials must be validated before making career decisions.
2030 economic stress test
How Anthropic's scenarios classify First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers
SOC 33-1011 places this role in the paper's all-other occupation group. These group-level outcomes do not change the 14/100 role score and are not an occupation forecast.
+1.1% group wage
Employment rises and unemployment falls for the all-other group, but the paper does not publish a separate group rate.
Economy-wide: +1.6% GDP and 3.9% unemployment.
+5.9% group wage
Employment rises and unemployment falls for the all-other group, but the paper does not publish a separate group rate.
Economy-wide: +8.3% GDP and 4.6% unemployment.
+33.6% group wage
Employment rises and unemployment falls for the all-other group, but the paper does not publish a separate group rate.
Economy-wide: +32.4% GDP and 11.9% unemployment.
Compare the assumptions and limitations across all three scenarios. Source: The Anthropic Institute Working Paper No. 2026-02.
Official task evidence
O*NET task matches for First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers
The current evidence import matched 23 task statements from Task Statements 31.0 (August 2026). These rows are used as a grounding layer for judging which parts of the occupation are repeatable, language-heavy, analytical, social, physical, or compliance-sensitive.
Dataset31.0 (August 2026)
Matched tasks23
SOC33-1011
- Core task / ID 9428
Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts.
- Core task / ID 9429
Maintain order, discipline, and security within assigned areas in accordance with relevant rules, regulations, policies, and laws.
- Core task / ID 9431
Maintain knowledge of, comply with, and enforce all institutional policies, rules, procedures, and regulations.
- Core task / ID 9430
Respond to emergencies, such as escapes.
- Core task / ID 9432
Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers to ensure the safe custody, discipline, and welfare of inmates.
- Core task / ID 9434
Supervise or perform searches of inmates or their quarters to locate contraband items.
Source: O*NET Resource Center, Task Statements. Raw import target: data/raw/onet/task-statements-31-0.txt.
Task profile
Where AI changes the work
Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers
Exposure 22, automation 8%, augmentation 48%.
O*NET evidence: Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers to ensure the safe custody, disc... (ID 9432)
Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts
Exposure 40, automation 20%, augmentation 46%.
O*NET evidence: Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts. (ID 9428)
Respond to emergencies such as escapes
Exposure 14, automation 4%, augmentation 32%.
O*NET evidence: Respond to emergencies, such as escapes. (ID 9430)
Supervise searches of inmates and quarters
Exposure 18, automation 7%, augmentation 38%.
O*NET evidence: Supervise or perform searches of inmates or their quarters to locate contraband items. (ID 9434)
TaskExposureAutomationAugmentation
Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers228%48%
Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts4020%46%
Respond to emergencies such as escapes144%32%
Supervise searches of inmates and quarters187%38%
Transition pathways
Adjacent moves that preserve existing skills
credentialed transition
LowCorrectional Lieutenant or Captain
Training horizon: 12-24 months. Skill overlap 66. Wage preservation signal 120.
- Pass promotional processes
- Command housing units
- Own use-of-force review
role redesign
LowFacility Compliance Manager
Training horizon: 6-12 months. Skill overlap 62. Wage preservation signal 114.
- Audit policy compliance
- Lead accreditation prep
- Manage grievance systems
Comparison guides
Compare the next move before you commit
12-24 months
First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers to Correctional Lieutenant or Captain
Compare AI displacement pressure, wage preservation, skill overlap, training time, and first proof project for moving from First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers into Correctional Lieutenant or Captain.
6-12 months
First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers to Facility Compliance Manager
Compare AI displacement pressure, wage preservation, skill overlap, training time, and first proof project for moving from First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers into Facility Compliance Manager.
What the AI risk score means for First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers
The displacement pressure score for First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers is 14. That score blends task exposure, automation pressure, augmentation potential, wage vulnerability, transition feasibility, and source confidence. It is designed to help workers and workforce teams decide where to act first, not to claim a specific date when a job will disappear.
For this role, the clearest risk pattern is visible at the task level. Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts carries 20% automation pressure, while Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers carries 48% augmentation potential. That means the best response is usually a targeted redesign of work: move away from repeatable production tasks and toward judgment, exception handling, coordination, stakeholder context, and accountable use of AI tools.
Labor-market context and wage risk
Median wage: $77,970 (May 2025, US national). Employment context: Custody supervision above the correctional-officer role. Typical education: Promotion from officer ranks; academy training.
Wage vulnerability is 26, while transition feasibility is 62. A high wage-vulnerability score means workers should pay close attention to salary preservation before making a move. A high transition-feasibility score means there are adjacent paths that can reuse existing skills without requiring a complete career reset.
- Low displacement pressure
- Analytics assist counts and monitoring
- Emergency command stays human
Upskilling priorities
Skills that make this role more resilient
The safest upskilling plan starts with skills already close to the work. For First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers, the strongest near-term skill priorities are listed below. These are useful whether the goal is to stay in the role, move to a redesigned version of the role, or transition into an adjacent occupation.
Custody supervision
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Institutional security
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Emergency response
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Incident documentation
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
90-day transition plan
The most practical next step is not to wait for a layoff or a full role redesign. Use the next 90 days to create evidence that you can operate in a safer, more AI-augmented version of the work.
- In the first 30 days, document the repetitive tasks in your current work and identify where AI can reduce drafting, lookup, classification, or reporting time.
- By 60 days, complete one small project connected to Correctional Lieutenant or Captain, such as pass promotional processes.
- By 90 days, compare internal openings and external postings for Correctional Lieutenant or Captain or Facility Compliance Manager and update your resume around measurable workflow outcomes.
FAQ
Questions about AI and First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers
Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers?
Correctional supervisors direct officers, maintain institutional security, and respond to emergencies including escapes. Surveillance analytics and electronic counts streamline monitoring, but custody decisions, use-of-force review, and emergency command inside a facility are supervisory judgment with legal weight. The better planning signal is not full replacement, but which tasks become automated, which tasks become AI-assisted, and which responsibilities still need human judgment.
Which parts of First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers work are most exposed to AI?
Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts and Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers show the strongest automation pressure in this model. Supervise and direct the work of correctional officers and Take, receive, or check periodic inmate counts are better treated as AI-augmented work.
What should First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers learn next?
Start with Custody supervision, Institutional security, Emergency response. The most practical adjacent paths in this model are Correctional Lieutenant or Captain and Facility Compliance Manager.
How should this score be used?
Use it as a planning signal, not a prediction. Confirm local hiring demand, wages, licensing, credentials, and employer adoption before making a career move.
Sources
Evidence trail
OECD / 11 July 2023OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour MarketO*NET Resource Center / Database 31.0 (August 2026)Occupation, Task, Skill, and Work-Activity DataUS Bureau of Labor Statistics / May 2025 estimates (released 15 May 2026)Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics