Share and intensity of work current AI systems can materially affect.
SOC 49-9092
Commercial Divers AI displacement risk
Commercial divers inspect, repair, and build underwater: bridge pilings, ship hulls, dams, and offshore infrastructure. Remotely operated vehicles now handle many inspection surveys, but construction, welding, and salvage underwater require a diver — working in zero visibility, by touch, under decompression limits.
Likely potential for exposed tasks to move to software after workflow integration.
ROVs took the look-and-see work and left the hands-on work, which concentrated the occupation on its most skilled tasks. Divers who add underwater welding and NDT inspection credentials command the strongest rates.
Distribution
Where Commercial Divers sits across 620 tracked roles
Displacement pressure 14 — higher than 8% of the 620 occupations tracked on displacement.ai.
Score version
This page uses Seed model v0.4 (seed-v0.4-2026-05), last reviewed 2026-08-15. Directional occupation-level planning model using hand-reviewed public research, task exposure estimates, wage context, and transition-pathway assumptions.
24 O*NET task statements matched to SOC 49-9092. The displayed task profile combines these official task statements with the current public score model.
Median wage context: $72,990 (May 2025, US national). The latest BLS row matched SOC 49-9092.
Scores are planning signals, not forecasts. Local hiring demand, employer-specific workflows, licensing, and credentials must be validated before making career decisions.
2030 economic stress test
How Anthropic's scenarios classify Commercial Divers
SOC 49-9092 places this role in the paper's all-other occupation group. These group-level outcomes do not change the 14/100 role score and are not an occupation forecast.
+1.1% group wage
Employment rises and unemployment falls for the all-other group, but the paper does not publish a separate group rate.
Economy-wide: +1.6% GDP and 3.9% unemployment.
+5.9% group wage
Employment rises and unemployment falls for the all-other group, but the paper does not publish a separate group rate.
Economy-wide: +8.3% GDP and 4.6% unemployment.
+33.6% group wage
Employment rises and unemployment falls for the all-other group, but the paper does not publish a separate group rate.
Economy-wide: +32.4% GDP and 11.9% unemployment.
Compare the assumptions and limitations across all three scenarios. Source: The Anthropic Institute Working Paper No. 2026-02.
Official task evidence
O*NET task matches for Commercial Divers
The current evidence import matched 24 task statements from Task Statements 31.0 (August 2026). These rows are used as a grounding layer for judging which parts of the occupation are repeatable, language-heavy, analytical, social, physical, or compliance-sensitive.
Dataset31.0 (August 2026)
Matched tasks24
SOC49-9092
- Core task / ID 13856
Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges.
- Core task / ID 13855
Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.
- Core task / ID 13854
Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, using signal lines or telephones.
- Core task / ID 13857
Descend into water with the aid of diver helpers, using scuba gear or diving suits.
- Core task / ID 13859
Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.
- Core task / ID 13858
Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions.
Source: O*NET Resource Center, Task Statements. Raw import target: data/raw/onet/task-statements-31-0.txt.
Task profile
Where AI changes the work
Inspect the condition of underwater structures
Exposure 26, automation 11%, augmentation 46%.
O*NET evidence: Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures. (ID 20809)
Check and maintain diving equipment
Exposure 24, automation 10%, augmentation 44%.
O*NET evidence: Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or g... (ID 13856)
Communicate with surface workers while underwater
Exposure 20, automation 8%, augmentation 42%.
O*NET evidence: Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, using signal lines or telepho... (ID 13854)
Monitor dive lengths and depths for safety
Exposure 22, automation 9%, augmentation 46%.
O*NET evidence: Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and reg... (ID 13855)
TaskExposureAutomationAugmentation
Inspect the condition of underwater structures2611%46%
Check and maintain diving equipment2410%44%
Communicate with surface workers while underwater208%42%
Monitor dive lengths and depths for safety229%46%
Transition pathways
Adjacent moves that preserve existing skills
role redesign
LowDive Supervisor
Training horizon: 6-12 months. Skill overlap 66. Wage preservation signal 122.
- Lead dive teams
- Own decompression planning
- Manage client inspections
credentialed transition
LowUnderwater NDT Inspector
Training horizon: 12-24 months. Skill overlap 60. Wage preservation signal 118.
- Earn NDT certifications
- Master ultrasonic testing
- Serve offshore energy clients
Comparison guides
Compare the next move before you commit
6-12 months
Commercial Divers to Dive Supervisor
Compare AI displacement pressure, wage preservation, skill overlap, training time, and first proof project for moving from Commercial Divers into Dive Supervisor.
12-24 months
Commercial Divers to Underwater NDT Inspector
Compare AI displacement pressure, wage preservation, skill overlap, training time, and first proof project for moving from Commercial Divers into Underwater NDT Inspector.
What the AI risk score means for Commercial Divers
The displacement pressure score for Commercial Divers is 14. That score blends task exposure, automation pressure, augmentation potential, wage vulnerability, transition feasibility, and source confidence. It is designed to help workers and workforce teams decide where to act first, not to claim a specific date when a job will disappear.
For this role, the clearest risk pattern is visible at the task level. Inspect the condition of underwater structures carries 11% automation pressure, while Inspect the condition of underwater structures carries 46% augmentation potential. That means the best response is usually a targeted redesign of work: move away from repeatable production tasks and toward judgment, exception handling, coordination, stakeholder context, and accountable use of AI tools.
Labor-market context and wage risk
Median wage: $72,990 (May 2025, US national). Employment context: Underwater construction and inspection — the ultimate physical anchor. Typical education: Commercial diving school plus ADCI or equivalent certification.
Wage vulnerability is 34, while transition feasibility is 56. A high wage-vulnerability score means workers should pay close attention to salary preservation before making a move. A high transition-feasibility score means there are adjacent paths that can reuse existing skills without requiring a complete career reset.
- Low displacement pressure
- ROVs take survey work, divers keep construction
- Zero-visibility work is by touch
Upskilling priorities
Skills that make this role more resilient
The safest upskilling plan starts with skills already close to the work. For Commercial Divers, the strongest near-term skill priorities are listed below. These are useful whether the goal is to stay in the role, move to a redesigned version of the role, or transition into an adjacent occupation.
Underwater welding
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Dive safety compliance
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
ROV coordination
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
Hull inspection
Build proof of this skill through a work sample, checklist, dashboard, case note, workflow map, or portfolio artifact tied to the transition paths on this page.
90-day transition plan
The most practical next step is not to wait for a layoff or a full role redesign. Use the next 90 days to create evidence that you can operate in a safer, more AI-augmented version of the work.
- In the first 30 days, document the repetitive tasks in your current work and identify where AI can reduce drafting, lookup, classification, or reporting time.
- By 60 days, complete one small project connected to Dive Supervisor, such as lead dive teams.
- By 90 days, compare internal openings and external postings for Dive Supervisor or Underwater NDT Inspector and update your resume around measurable workflow outcomes.
FAQ
Questions about AI and Commercial Divers
Will AI replace Commercial Divers?
Commercial divers inspect, repair, and build underwater: bridge pilings, ship hulls, dams, and offshore infrastructure. Remotely operated vehicles now handle many inspection surveys, but construction, welding, and salvage underwater require a diver — working in zero visibility, by touch, under decompression limits. The better planning signal is not full replacement, but which tasks become automated, which tasks become AI-assisted, and which responsibilities still need human judgment.
Which parts of Commercial Divers work are most exposed to AI?
Inspect the condition of underwater structures and Check and maintain diving equipment show the strongest automation pressure in this model. Inspect the condition of underwater structures and Monitor dive lengths and depths for safety are better treated as AI-augmented work.
What should Commercial Divers learn next?
Start with Underwater welding, Dive safety compliance, ROV coordination. The most practical adjacent paths in this model are Dive Supervisor and Underwater NDT Inspector.
How should this score be used?
Use it as a planning signal, not a prediction. Confirm local hiring demand, wages, licensing, credentials, and employer adoption before making a career move.
Sources
Evidence trail
OECD / 11 July 2023OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour MarketO*NET Resource Center / Database 31.0 (August 2026)Occupation, Task, Skill, and Work-Activity DataUS Bureau of Labor Statistics / May 2025 estimates (released 15 May 2026)Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics